Публикации | Статьи

GDP Per Capita and Protest Activity: A Quantitative Re-Analysis

A. Korotayev, S. Bilyuga and A. Shishkina
Supporting online materials

Our research suggests that the relation between GDP per capita and sociopolitical destabilization is not a negative correlation, but rather an inverted U-shaped curve. The highest risks are relevant for the countries with medium values of GDP per capita, not the highest or lowest values. Thus, until a certain value of GDP per capita is reached, the economic growth tends to lead to an increase in the risks of sociopolitical destabilization.

This positive correlation is particularly strong (r = 0.935, R2 = 0.875) and significant for such an indicator of sociopolitical destabilization as the intensity of anti-government demonstrations. This correlation can be observed in a very wide interval (up to 20,000 of international 2014 dollars at purchasing power parities [PPP]). It is partially accounted for by the following regularities: (1) GDP growth in authoritarian regimes strengthens the pro-democracy movements, and, consequently, intensifies anti-government demonstrations. (2) In the GDP per capita interval from the minimum to $20,000 the growth of GDP per capita correlates quite strongly with a declining proportion of authoritarian regimes and a growing proportion of intermediate and democratic regimes. (3) Finally, GDP growth in the given diapason increases the level of education of the population, which, in turn, leads to a higher intensity of anti-government demonstrations.

file:dataset.csv
file:autocorrelation_results.xlsx

Andrey KOROTAYEV – doctor of philosophy (Ph.D.), doctor of historical sciences, professor, Head of the Laboratory of Monitoring of the Risks of Sociopolitical Destabilization of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Senior Research Professor for the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, 8–917-517–80–34, akorotayev@gmail.com.

Stanislav BILYUGA – junior researcher for the Laboratory of Monitoring of the Risks of Sociopolitical Destabilization of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia, sbilyuga@gmail.com

Alisa SHISHKINA – master of political science, junior researcher for the Laboratory of Monitoring of the Risks of Sociopolitical Destabilization of the National Research University Higher School of Economics and the Centre for civilizational and regional studies Institute for African studies, Moscow, Russia, 8–916-064–10–87, alisa.shishkina@gmail.com